Draft is here! A more complete rule set has been posted, but things will run mostly the same as they have the past 2 cycles- 32 teams, 16 qualify for the World Cup, and there will be international windows following Seasons 21, 22, and 23 for qualifiers.
The system to determine the draft order remains the same as last cycle's, and here is the breakdown:
Besides redwings having the largest donation, the doc below lays out everything that went into the determining the draft order:
What is all this? I'll explain... (same as last year tho)
- In general, what we have here is a weighted system of (1) results from S18-S21, (2) total TSL seasons played, and (3) match completion. So in short, the better results you had over that period, the worse your draft position would be. But if you had long service time and a high completion rate, that would help your position.
- We assigned weights of 65% to results, 10% to seasons played, and 25% to match completion (the numbers highlighted in yellow at the bottom of doc).
- In order to mesh all 3 components together, we have to somehow have all 3 with a common unit set. So to do that, there's rankings (1-38, everyone who has completed at least 1 season in TSL) for each of the 3 categories, and then the 65-10-25 weights are applied to those rankings. In other words, you can't just add the raw values of points per game to number of seasons completed. So this allows us to create one final number, the WEIGHTED RANKS column.
- For the 3 RANK columns, you can think of it as being 1=helps draft position and 38=hurts draft position. That's why Zikry is ranked #32 for PPG, but #2.5 for SERVICE TIME.
- For any ties in the RANK columns, the RANK was adjusted to the average of the ranks. For example, 4 people have 21 completed seasons, but rather than all 4 ranked #1, or randomly choosing to rank them #1 through #4, we took the average of those ranks, thus giving them all a rank of #2.5 (this explains why some ranks end in .5).
- Looking at the DRAFT POSITION compared to the TOTAL wPPG RANK (more on this calculation later), you can see how service time/completion affects the overall positioning a bit.
TOTAL SEASONS PLAYED
- Titled SERVICE TIME in the doc, and taken from the TSL archives doc. Just shows how many seasons have been completed.
- People who have at some point dropped out mid-season are highlighted in gray and have had their numbers rounded up to show the total number of seasons they participated in. The reason for doing this as opposed to noting a half-season played (such as 14.5) is due to the match completion criteria (explained next). Had we kept service time at a half season, the half-season'er would have incorrectly been double-penalized from the two categories. Another way of looking at this is that match completion in the next section represents the person's completion rate over the number of full seasons they have participated in.
- The match completion "points" system can be best explained as such: each season, each person receives 1 "point" for completing all of their matches. Miss 1 game, and you get docked a point, thus finishing with 0 points for that season. Miss 2 games, and you get docked 2 points, so you actually finish with -1 point for the season (the full per-season table breakdown is in the bottom-right of the google doc).
- Seasons played and games missed were both taken from the TSL archives.
- The most complex part of the whole thing is quantifying the results of each user from FIFA 16. So I'll try to go somewhat step-by-step in how these were made...
- The results component is exactly the same as the one we used for the World Cup on FIFA 16. Back then, we evaluated people from S14-S18, and thus did the same 4-season evaluation this time around.
- For all seasons, the doc shows each user's League level, games played, and total points. We then made a PPG column so you can easily see those totals too.
- After entering in these totals, we made a wPTS column (weighted points). As you can see by looking at the League Level weights at the bottom, all League A points were weighted by 3, all B pts by 2, and all C pts by 1. (Also, anything in the doc with the "w"-something stands for weighted and that just means adjusted for League level weights)
- We have to still make these totals on a per game basis due to incomplete games, people who dropped out early, and differing number of teams per league, so the wPPG column is wPTS/game. So this would be the weighted (by league level) points per game.
- To get a total number for S18-S21 totals with most recent results taking slightly more precedence, we used the following format: S21 = 40%, S20 = 30%, S19 = 20%, and S18 = 10% (If you look down at the weights box at the bottom, you'll see these weights). But for people with less than 4 seasons of data...
- I'll start with an example. For people with 2 seasons played (say S20-S21), we still need to weigh everything they've played out of 100%. Therefore, we took the same percentage of distribution used season-to-season above (40-30-20-10) to create the "Distribution" line in the weights table (100%-75%-50%-25%). That means looking at the most recent season's (S21) weight as 100%, the previous season before that (S20) would be 75% of that weight total, then the season before that (which would've been S19 had this person played 4 seasons) would've been 50% of the most recent season's weight total, and so on. With this distribution in mind, you can see in the weights box how each season would be weighted if a user played less than 4 seasons... So for people with 2 seasons played, it comes out to roughly a 60-40 weight distribution, but just adding math to create numbers more in line with the 40-30-20-10 original distribution and not just arbitrary numbers. And for those with just 1 season played, obviously their one season is 100% of their results total (so they aren't penalized for having played less seasons).
- Alright, so after weighing the FIFA 16 seasons with more recent results carrying more weight, we get the TOTAL wPPG number. So for example, for someone like myself with 4 FIFA 16 seasons played, my TOTAL wPPG would be 40% of my Season 21's wPPG, 30% of my Season 20's wPPG, and so on. So in the end, this step creates an overall weighted average of my wPPG each season.
- And with that all completed, I can create a ranking like the SERVICE TIME and COMPLETION PTS columns that go into making the overall "magic" number (the WEIGHTED RANKS number)
And in the end, we can put in order from lowest to highest the WEIGHTED RANKS column to get our overall draft position.
FAQ Why do some people have 100.00 in the TOTAL wPPG column?
These people have no results from S18-21, and thus are to be ranked last in the RANK category for this criteria. Therefore, 100.00 was entered as dummy data to ensure the RANK for these people would be last (so in the end, putting 100.00 here is no different than 8.00. The only number that goes into the final "magic" number that is WEIGHTED RANKS is the 36 for these people in the respective RANK column).
Why are some people highlighted in red or orange in the Draft Results tab?
These would be the people that opted out of the draft or were not chosen to draft at this time. As a result, rather than using the "Raw" number for actual draft position (which matches the number from the Draft Order tab), we have an "Actual" draft position. This column is further adjusted depending on successful Heritage claims and people keeping their teams due to a top-3 finish in the last World Cup.
How did you split up the people who had not played in TSL at all before?
After the commishs first decided who would be able to draft now, these people had their spots determined at the bottom of the draft by a random draw. That resulted in TheeEverbro drafting a spot above Brian B. It was not necessary to draw parky_1990 due to his successful Heritage claim, and Chapin10 (aka guayo) was only added after frenchie1916 departed the league following the initial release of the draft order.
Will this whole method be used again for the next World Cup we hold on FIFA 18?
Most likely, as this is now the 4th iteration of using this type of system. Some tweaks could be made here and there, but we will still likely find a way to incorporate past results, service time, and match completion at the very least. So this may be something to keep in mind as each future season goes by.
If you have any other questions, post here and I'll be able to explain it further. The draft is now open!
also, regions will be the same as last time. That means 16 Euro teams, 8 Americas, and 8 Africa/Asia (with Turkey, Russia, Finland, Sweden, and Norway all being moved into Africa/Asia). Groups of 4, and top 2 from each group will qualify for the World Cup. Here's a breakdown of all the international teams and their regions: