(F18) Official Draft Order

Status
Not open for further replies.

Broncos218

Well-Known Member
As we near the World Cup draft, everyone is eager to find out where they stand in the draft! Well unfortunately since the World Cup draft formula uses results from all seasons this cycle and also includes number of games completed, we must wait for Season 28 to officially end before we can release the official draft order.

But since that could still be a few days away, we've used the current standings to see where people stand just before the season's end. That means people could still move up or down a few spots, but likely not much. Therefore we've grouped people into 5-pick groupings to give everyone an idea on where they will draft.

This is not a guarantee of where you will be drafting! Rather, this is where the draft machine spits you out as of right now based upon each person's F18 results, completion percentage, and seasons completed. Here are the groups with people listed in alphabetical order per group:

Picks 1-5
AbolishtheFed
asprice81
feverpitch57
Lou
UcanHateMeNow

Picks 6-10
hokie79
Nolan
RedAL925
shootah66
UberDurr

Picks 11-15
driccio21
gordow3497
KJLamb23
redwings8831
Thedoctor05

Picks 16-20
ASinghal31
Broncos218
kp_1022
rschwep
vipermansa

Picks 21-25
hkyjck
HoffSpur
robdice
TheeEverbro
treshioskjl

Picks 26+
CxMACx10
Padaliac513
shiftee
TankeAguilar
wSeals9
Zikry

Shortly after Season 28 closes, the official draft order will be revealed!
 

RedAL925

TSL Commissioner
THINGS TO KNOW
1. Because we have an expanded list of teams from which to choose, we will not be moving teams out of Europe and into Africa/Asia.
2. We will not require a posted roster, as you will not be able to add/remove players from the international player pool.
3. Qualified teams have a default roster of about 40 players. While we hope you will stick to the same 23 players during the tournament, all players can be used.
4. Non-Qualified teams have a default roster of 23 players.
5. With Ivory Coast unavailable, wSeals9 will be allowed to take Senegal before the draft. His claim on Ivory Coast for next cycle remains in place.

Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 12.10.03 PM.png
Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 12.10.22 PM.png
Screen Shot 2018-05-29 at 12.10.34 PM.png
 

Broncos218

Well-Known Member
The OFFICIAL draft order is here!!! 32 nations will be selected, and ultimately 16 will qualify for the World Cup.

The system to determine the draft order remains the same as last cycle's, and here is the breakdown:

OFFICIAL F18 WORLD CUP DRAFT ORDER

"Why am I not #1??!" you may be asking. Well, the doc below lays out everything that went into the determining the draft order:

(If spreadsheet doesn't appear, try going here)
[gdsheet]13rBbD4Y3tD8e0P-7WiqgeWfXg5QiseZAFyhGZYDng6A[/gdsheet]


What is all this? I'll explain... (basically same as last year tho)

OVERALL/GENERAL STUFF

- In general, what we have here is a weighted system of (1) results from S26-S28, (2) total TSL seasons played, and (3) match completion. So in short, the better results you had over that period, the worse your draft position would be. But if you had long service time and a high completion rate, that would help your position.

- We assigned weights of 65% to results, 10% to seasons played, and 25% to match completion (the numbers highlighted in yellow at the bottom of doc).

- In order to mesh all 3 components together, we have to somehow have all 3 with a common unit set. So to do that, there's rankings (1-34, everyone who completed the most recent season) for each of the 3 categories, and then the 65-10-25 weights are applied to those rankings. In other words, you can't just add the raw values of points per game to number of seasons completed. So this allows us to create one final number, the WEIGHTED RANKS column.

- For the 3 RANK columns, you can think of it as being 1=helps draft position and 34=hurts draft position. That's why Zikry is ranked #31 for PPG, but #2.5 for SERVICE TIME.

- For any ties in the RANK columns, the RANK was adjusted to the average of the ranks. For example, 4 people have 28 completed seasons, but rather than all 4 ranked #1, or randomly choosing to rank them #1 through #4, we took the average of those ranks, thus giving them all a rank of #2.5 (this explains why some ranks end in .5).

- Looking at the DRAFT POSITION compared to the TOTAL wPPG RANK (more on this calculation later), you can see how service time/completion affects the overall positioning a bit.

TOTAL SEASONS PLAYED
- Titled SERVICE TIME in the doc, and taken from the TSL archives doc. Just shows how many seasons have been completed.

- People who have at some point dropped out mid-season have had their numbers rounded up to show the total number of seasons they participated in. The reason for doing this as opposed to noting a half-season played (such as 14.5) is due to the match completion criteria (explained next). Had we kept service time at a half season, the half-season'er would have incorrectly been double-penalized from the two categories. Another way of looking at this is that match completion in the next section represents the person's completion rate over the number of full seasons they have participated in.

MATCH COMPLETION
- The match completion "points" system can be best explained as such: each season, each person receives 1 "point" for completing all of their matches. Miss 1 game, and you get docked a point, thus finishing with 0 points for that season. Miss 2 games, and you get docked 2 points, so you actually finish with -1 point for the season (the full per-season table breakdown is in the bottom-right of the google doc).

- Seasons played and games missed were both taken from the TSL archives.

S26-S28 RESULTS
- The most complex part of the whole thing is quantifying the results of each user from FIFA 18. So I'll try to go somewhat step-by-step in how these were made...

- The results component is nearly the same as the one we used for the World Cup on FIFA 17. Back then, we evaluated people from S18-S21 (the 4 seasons prior to the draft). This time we only used a 3-season evaluation instead of the usual 4, as we only wanted to include FIFA 18 seasons.

- For all seasons, the doc shows each user's League level, games played, and total points. We then made a PPG column so you can easily see those totals too.

- After entering in these totals, we made a wPTS column (weighted points). As you can see by looking at the League Level weights at the bottom, all League A points were weighted by 3, all B pts by 2, and all C pts by 1. (Also, anything in the doc with the "w"-something stands for weighted and that just means adjusted for League level weights)

- We have to still make these totals on a per game basis due to incomplete games, people who dropped out early, and differing number of teams per league, so the wPPG column is wPTS/game. So this would be the weighted (by league level) points per game.

- To get a total number for S26-S28 totals with most recent results taking slightly more precedence, we used the following format: S28 = 44.4%, S27 = 33.3%, and S26 = 22.2% (Previously this was 40-30-20-10 for 4 seasons, so we used the same distribution across the 3 most recent seasons. If you look down at the weights box at the bottom, you'll see these weights). But for people with less than 3 seasons of data...

- I'll start with an example. For people with 2 seasons played (say S27-S28), we still need to weigh everything they've played out of 100%. Therefore, we took the same percentage of distribution used season-to-season above (44-33-22) to create the "Distribution" line in the weights table (100%-75%-50%-25% that is used for 4-season evaluations). That means looking at the most recent season's (S28) weight as 100%, the previous season before that (S27) would be 75% of that weight total, then the season before that (which would've been S26 had this person played 3 seasons) would've been 50% of the most recent season's weight total, and so on. With this distribution in mind, you can see in the weights box how each season would be weighted if a user played less than 3 seasons... So for people with 2 seasons played, it comes out to roughly a 60-40 weight distribution, but just adding math to create numbers more in line with the 40-30-20-10 original 4-season distribution and not just arbitrary numbers. And for those with just 1 season played, obviously their one season is 100% of their results total (so they aren't penalized for having played less seasons).

- Alright, so after weighing the FIFA 18 seasons with more recent results carrying more weight, we get the TOTAL wPPG number. So for example, for someone like myself with 3 FIFA 18 seasons played, my TOTAL wPPG would be 44.4% of my Season 28's wPPG, 33.3% of my Season 27's wPPG, and so on. So in the end, this step creates an overall weighted average of my wPPG each season.

- And with that all completed, I can create a ranking like the SERVICE TIME and COMPLETION PTS columns that go into making the overall "magic" number (the WEIGHTED RANKS number)

And in the end, we can put in order from lowest to highest the WEIGHTED RANKS column to get our overall draft position.



If you have any questions, ask in GroupMe or send me a message there and I'll be able to explain it further. The draft will be starting soon, so be ready!
 

HoffSpur

Member
Regional Counts:
  • Europe - 16/16
  • Americas - 8/8
  • Africa/Asia - 8/8
Draft Order:
  1. AbolishtheFed - France
  2. feverpitch57 - Argentina
  3. asprice81 - Spain
  4. Daveok1919 - Germany
  5. Lou - Brazil
  6. hokie79 - Belgium
  7. UberDurr - Mexico
  8. UcanHateMeNow - Uruguay
  9. RedAL925 - Serbia
  10. shootah66 - Portugal
  11. Nolan - Switzerland
  12. Driccio21 - Colombia
  13. redwings8831 - England
  14. KJLamb23 - Croatia
  15. gordow3497 - Poland
  16. Thedoctor05 - Italy
  17. kp_1022 - Netherlands
  18. rschwep - Chile
  19. ASinghal31 - Morocco
  20. Broncos218 - USA
  21. vipermansa - Austria
  22. HoffSpur85 - Nigeria
  23. treshioskjl - Denmark
  24. robdice - Wales
  25. hkyjck - Egypt
  26. TheeEverbro - Peru
  27. wSeals9 - Senegal
  28. TankeAguilar - Turkey
  29. Zikry - Russia
  30. Padaliac513 - Japan
  31. CxMACx10 - South Korea
  32. shiftee - Iran
 
Last edited:

Broncos218

Well-Known Member

There will be 8 groups of 4 teams each, separated by region (4 groups in Europe, 2 in the Americas, 2 in Africa/Asia). Within each group, teams will play against each opponent twice, totaling 6 qualifiers to be played.

We'll begin with the European region, followed by the Americas region, and finishing with Africa/Asia. We'll alternate between groups (A-B-C-D-A-B-C-D-... for Europe, A-B-A-B-... for smaller regions).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top