Rating Roggie's 2093 draft grades

JProt1010

Well-Known Member
Lets see how the Dugout's top draft evaluator did, some 20 years later.

Pick 1: San Francisco Giants --1B Paul Roberts

Roggie says:
Let me start off by saying this: Roberts is going to be a fantastic player. But him at 1/1? That I don't agree with at all. You've got an elite middle infielder in Austin available that's almost as good of a bat, Bob Conner, a catcher with a great bat in a league that has basically no good catchers, and a couple elite SP specs on the board, along with an elite outfielder in Ryan Adams. Again, Roberts is fantastic, but I just can't see taking a pure 1B at 1/1 in a draft when you have other elite options on the board.

Grade: C-

In Hindsight:
Roberts had a decent career in San Francisco, hitting 391 home runs over parts of 15 seasons. But he never was an "elite player." I don't know if we could even call him fantastic. Still, Austin and Conner turned out to be better, as did some of those pitchers. That's enough to afford Roggie a high mark.

Hindsight grade: A+

Pick 2: Kansas City Royals --
SS George Austin

Roggie: I definitely would have taken Austin 1/1 in this draft. Again, this isn't a knock on Roberts, but a knock on his lack of defensive versatility or value. He will be an above average 1B solely due to his 6'7 frame, but that's not enough to surpass a very good defensive middle infielder in Austin, who has almost as good of a bat and will probably have a higher OBP due to his penchant for not striking out. The only real weakness in Austin's game is his lack of speed. If he was a good baserunner, you'd have possibly the perfect #2 hitter in him.

Austin should be a good shortstop, but he probably won't be elite defensively at short. He could move to 2nd and would be fantastic there.

Grade: A+

In Hindsight:
22 years later, Austin is still active. Not only is he still active, he's still productive. This year, he has been worth 3.1 WAR, hitting .289 with 13 home runs while providing stellar defense for Pittsburgh. Austin has made two all star games and has one gold glove, though he should have more of both to his name, it seems. Right now, it appears Austin will be a borderline HOF -- the two rings he won for Kansas City should help his case. Perhaps his hitting could be a knock against him, as his career OPS+ is 103. That speed comment? Yeah, doesn't really matter. Nobody cares about speed anymore, Roggie.

Hindsight grade: A

Pick 3: Houston Astros -- SP Matt Parrish

Roggie
says: Parrish should someday be an ace. But he's definitely not the top SP in this draft. He's also 22 and not very developed, which adds risk. He's not as good as Stu Leslie and is barely more developed while 4 years older. I think Lockhart is better as well, but not by much, and Lockhart is the same age and even less developed than Parrish, so I 100% agree with Parrish before him. It's close between Parrish and McJannett, but I would probably take McJannett before Parrish too, but solely due to age/development.

Grade: C+

In Hindsight: Our first "who?" of the draft. Parrish never made the major leagues and has vanished from the database. On one hand, Roggie's concerns were valid, his skills weren't enough to carry him. But... Roggie did say he would be an ace, and did say he would be a better selection than Larry Lockhart, neither of which proved to be true. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt, however.

Hindsight grade: B-

Pick 4: San Diego Padres -- C Bob Conner

Roggie says:
Again, let me start with a preface: Conner, as a bat by himself, probably isn't good enough to go #4. BUT, his positional value is exceptional. Catcher is a black hole in this league currently, so a chance to get an elite catcher right here is tremendous. His value, including position, is far better than anything left on the board, and probably should have had him go #2 overall after Austin. Once again, the Padres get a steal due to guys ahead making questionable picks.

Grade: A

In Hindsight:
Roggie was dead on -- Conner became an elite catcher, an 11-time All Star, two-time Gold Glover and nine-time Silver Slugger. In my opinion, he should get the call to Cooperstown, but that's a whole different conversation. But there's no doubting this, from 2097-2108, Conner was among the best catchers, if not the best, in baseball. Great pick by Kent and Roggie's evaluation was dead on. It's unfortunate that such a talented player never sniffed a ring.

Hindsight grade: A+

Pick 5: Minnesota Twins -- SP Larry Lockhart

Lockhart has the potential to be the #3 SP from this draft. But he's 21, almost 22, and is less developed than most 18 year olds. There's HUGE risk here, one that makes zero sense to take with Leslie still on the board. And there's a very similar, higher upside SP who is only 18 still available in McJannett. This pick, in a vacuum, isn't terrible, but with knowing what's left plus the huge risk involved, there could have been far better choices made.

Grade: C+

In Hindsight:
Roggie was just off -- Lockhart was the fourth-best pitcher from the draft, amassing more than 30 WAR. Lockhart struggled to find his groove early in his career, but did well in Montreal and carried that success into his late 30s. For what it's worth, he did far better than McJannett, but didn't do any better than Leslie. Lockhart was never an ace and didn't break into the majors as a regular until age 25. The McJannett quip is the only thing holding Roggie back from a higher grade.

Hindsight grade: B+
 
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JProt1010

Well-Known Member
Pick 6: Tampa Bay Rays -- SP Stu Leslie

Roggie says:
GM Otto hits the nail on the head with this draft pick. IMO, Leslie is the best pitcher in the draft, and it's not even close. Dude generates ground bals at an insane rate, throws 93-95 with potential to grow due to only being 18, and also can throw a nasty knuckleball. Oh, and he also has decent control of his pitches. The only thing missing are huge strikeout numbers, but if you put a good defensive infield behind him, who needs them? Absolute steal here.

Grade: A+

In hindsight: Leslie wasn't the best pitcher of the draft, but he did have a very respectable career. He anchored the Rays rotation for a number of years, winning 105 games from 2100-2015. In each of those seasons, he threw more than 200 innings. Leslie developed late and wasn't a full-time starter until age 25. Still, he won 150 games and accounted for 37.2 WAR. However, control became an issue for him. Leslie averaged 4 walks per nine innings over his career, compared to 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Was Leslie a steal? Possibly. He was certainly a great value pick for the Rays and though he wasn't the best pitcher from the draft, he could be counted among them. That earns Roggie a decent grade.

Hindsight grade: A-

Pick 7: Washington Nationals --
SP Luiz Saenz

Roggie says:
Saenz is a very solid SP who should be a future ace. If he gets any stronger, he will be a monster. Only throws about 90 right now, so plenty of room for growth there. Even if he stays where he is, he's a fantastic #2 or above average #1. Can't complain about this pick at all (Otto usually does better than Noles anyway)

Grade: A-

In hindsight: Saenz never became an ace. You can blame injuries for that. After a first two years in which he posted 67 starts, Saenz never started more than 30 games in a season. You could make the arguement that he was on his way to becoming an ace. In 2101, at age 25, Saenz recorded 3.3 WAR in 19 starts, but injuries shortened his season. After that, he was never the same. The Nationals let him go after 2102 and he bounced around as a reliever for a few years. After a two-year stint in the minors, Saenz returned to the majors as a reliever in 2107. Saenz posted a productive season in 2108 at age 32. It was his last year in the majors. Roggie couldn't forsee injuries, though Saenz was on his path to being a stud, he never stayed healthy enoiugh to be one.

Hindsight grade: C
 

JProt1010

Well-Known Member
Pick 8: Boston Red Sox -- CF Ryan Adams

Roggie says: New GM Stephen Donmoyer makes his first pick a very, very good OF spec (with 2B ability as well) in Adams. Can't see any issue with this pick at all. Personally had him slotted a couple places earlier in this draft. I do think he will have to move to a corner outfield spot in the future, but that doesn't hurt his value too much.

Grade: A-

In hindsight: The disgraced former singer's second life went better than the first. He has spent 18 seasons in the bigs, making six All Star teams. He's currently a free agent, having taken to playing 1B as his glove has wained. Adams never played the OF much, taking to 2B with Boston. He won a Gold Glove there in 2110. Adams has been a very good player with more than 2300 hits, 300 home runs and 45 WAR. But there's one thing he never was -- an outfielder. In fact, he started all of one game in a corner outfield spot. Roggie's eval talks about him being an outfield spec, perhaps even a corner outfield one. That's where he loses points.

Hindsight grade: C+


Pick 9: Toronto Blue Jays -- 2B Theron Cahill

Roggie says:
Cahill has a fantastic bat for an infielder. The worry with him is whether or not he will be good enough defensively in the future to stay at 2B. He's very borderline right now, but is only 18, so there's hope for him to improve enough to be able to stay there. If he stays at 2B, this is a great pick. If he gets relegated to 1B or DH, it does lose some value and makes it a slight reach.

Grade: B

In hindsight: Roggie can rig bats, but he can't rig gloves. In fact, he has trouble evaluating the position. Here we have Cahill, a stud 2B and a Dodgers favorite. Cahill won three silver sluggers and kicked around the bigs for parts of 17 seasons. For 15 of those seasons, he was a 2B (though he wasn't very good at 2B in his second stint as a Dodger). Still, an average glove never seemed to hurt Cahill. He recorded 12 seasons of more than 2.36 WAR and sits at 48 now. His bat certainly carried him, but his glove proved to be valuable. Cahill became a power hitting 2B who stuck there for 15 years. So much for that concern.

(Roggie has since pointed out that his career ZR at 2B sucked so he has been bumped from a B- to B+)

Hindsight grade: B+


Pick 10: St Louis Cardinals -- SP Wynn McJannett

Roggie says: I really like McJannett. He has the tank to throw a lot of pitches and he rarely walks people, which is a fantastic combination. He has the stuff to strike out guys by the bunches too. He may give up bit more homers than you'd prefer, but he's easily good enough to front almost any rotation in baseball if he develops.

Grade: A

In hindsight: Wynn who?? My mans Wynn never amounted to much. Though he pitched in parts of 7 seasons, he never turned into an ace. Shit, he never turned into a productive member of the rotation. McJannett amounted to more than 1 WAR just twice, once as a reliever. He started more than 25 games three times. To put it simply, the lefty was a major let down. Shoot, homers were the least of his worries. Like so many of McJannet's pitches, Roggie missed the mark here.

Hindsight grade: D
 
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JProt1010

Well-Known Member
Pick 11: New York Mets -- SP Vincent Williams

Roggie says: If Williams develops, he's an ace with 5 quality pitches. But the development is definitely an if, since he's 22 and doesn't have much control. Clear risk/reward with this pick, but based on the top pitchers left, Williams is the top guy and the other top guys are just as old with even more development risk than him, so it's hard to say it as a negative at all.

Grade: B+

In hindsight: Williams had a damn good career. With 38.02 WAR, he was the second-best pitcher of the draft. However, he was never an ace. Development wasn't a big issue -- he had a cup of coffee at 24 and became a mainstay at 25. After pitching in New York for some time, having just two seasons with more than 3 WAR, Williams had a late-career surge thanks to the excellent coaching staff and the foresight of the brilliant Dodgers' front office. He became a solid #2 starter, recording six seasons of more than 2.5 WAR in his 30s. At age 37, he went 15-6 with a 1.94 ERA as a Twin. Perhaps there was some risk/reward, but Williams cashed in on the later, becoming a solid starter.

Hindsight grade: B-
 

Roggie

Well-Known Member
Staff member
Pick 9: Toronto Blue Jays -- 2B Theron Cahill

Roggie says:
Cahill has a fantastic bat for an infielder. The worry with him is whether or not he will be good enough defensively in the future to stay at 2B. He's very borderline right now, but is only 18, so there's hope for him to improve enough to be able to stay there. If he stays at 2B, this is a great pick. If he gets relegated to 1B or DH, it does lose some value and makes it a slight reach.

Grade: B

In hindsight: Roggie can rig bats, but he can't rig gloves. In fact, he has trouble evaluating the position. Here we have Cahill, a stud 2B and a Dodgers favorite. Cahill won three silver sluggers and kicked around the bigs for parts of 17 seasons. For 15 of those seasons, he was a 2B (though he wasn't very good at 2B in his second stint as a Dodger). Still, an average glove never seemed to hurt Cahill. He recorded 12 seasons of more than 2.36 WAR and sits at 48 now. His bat certainly carried him, but his glove proved to be valuable. Cahill became a power hitting 2B who stuck there for 15 years. So much for that concern.

Hindsight grade: B-
Dude. He had a career -62.4 ZR at 2B... He had a positive ZR ONCE and it was 0.7... You cannot say my prediction was wrong.
 

JProt1010

Well-Known Member
Pick 12: Montreal Expos -- C Manuel Gomez

Roggie says:
Not a single negative to this pick here. He's been a durable player through high school, is good enough behind the plate that a move away isn't necessary at all, and his bat is good enough to be a great 1B if he ever had to. As a catcher, he's a top 3 C in the league if he develops to what scouts are expecting. Should have been a top 10 pick, so great value here for the Expos.

Grade: A

In hindsight: Gomez didn't do much after his 30th birthday, but he was a solid catcher for six years. He posted WAR above 2.5 four times and hit more than 10 home runs six times. Was he elite? Maybe for a few seasons. But the catching in this league sucks, so having a mainstay like that behind the dish is certainly a favorable outcome for a 12th overall pick. We can nitpick all we want about Roggie's prediction that he would be a top-3 catcher, but that's ultimately a moot point given his sustained production.

Hindsight grade: A

Pick 13: Chicago White Sox -- SP Jason Harrington

Roggie says:
This pick has a ton of risk. There are 18 year olds who are more developed than Harrington, who will be 23 by the time these players are playing in the minors. Sure, he has the ceiling to be great, but this pick has just far too much risk to it for it to be good.

Grade: C-

In hindsight: Harrington carved out a decent career. He was a two-time All Star and a damn good pitcher for the first two full seasons of his career. However, his staying power as a starter was limited. He struggled with walks and posted a WAR total above 2 just once following his first two seasons. His age meant that he didn't debut until age 27 and was essentially washed by the time he hit FA. A usable piece? Sure. But the risk that Roggie pointed out was there.

Hindsight Grade: A-


Pick 14: Pittsburgh Pirates -- SP Neil Martinez-Este

Roggie says:
This pick is basically the same as Harrington, with a little lower ceiling. This pick, IMO, is even worse because of that lesser ceiling. Someone like Bill Hinton would have been a far "safer" (quotes used due to a high school pitcher never being a really safe pick) pick due to the 5 extra years to develop while having pretty similar current talent levels.

Grade: D

In hindsight: Este was terrible in the one season in which he appeared in the majors. He pitched in 49 games, posting an ERA of 6.30 and a -1.29 WAR. Meanwhile, Hinton was never elite, but did post a 8.3 career WAR, so Roggie wasn't too far off. To put it simply, a bad pick was compounded by poor development.

Hindsight grade: A

Pick 15: Atlanta Express-- 2B Felix Medrano

Roggie says:
There were teams drafting earlier with interest in Medrano but chose to take other players. Medrano's weaknesses are his noodle arm and lack of power. He is basically forced to stay at 2B his whole career due to his arm and lack of height. The lack of power would make him a great leadoff hitter, but he has zero baserunning sense, so it's hard to see if he'll be a leadoff hitter or an outstanding 7th hitter. Not a bad pick, because what he does well, he's great at, but I see him more as an early 20s pick, not 15th.

Grade: C+

In hindsight: Whoever thought about taking Medrano earlier should thank their lucky stars that they didn't. Medrano played in parts of two major league seasons, staying close to the Mendoza line. He was out of the bigs by the time he turned 24.

Hindsight grade: A

Pick 16: Nashville Stampede -- SP Bill Hinton

Roggie says:
Hinton, IMO, is the best pitcher of the "2nd tier" of arms. He still has ace potential, and is still fantastic, but he's not a guy who will be the #1 SP in the league in the possible future. He'll be a top 25 arm, which there's nothing wrong with whatsoever. I like him better than the last couple arms who went, so this is a bit of a steal to me.

Grade: A

In hindsight: I too was high on Hinton. Given his upside, I thought it was a good pick. Hinton just didn't have the staying power. After two solid seasons in which he posted more than 2 WAR, he regressed. By age 27, he was essentially a swingman. That year, he was an elite RP, but fell off the table after his age 28 season. He was never a top-25 arm, though he was decent for two years. Really a poor outcome for a guy who looked to be a very good pitcher. On the bright side, he was part of a major package that got Tacos Velasquez.

Hindsight grade: C+
 
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